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Category Archives: Economic Analysis
Here we go again. The U.S. is facing another last-minute deal cobbled together between the outgoing House Speaker John Boehner and the White House about the looming debt ceiling. The Treasury secretary has warned Congress that the debt ceiling needs … Continue reading
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept monetary policy unchanged in the eurozone, though ECB President Mario Draghi did signal the ECB stands ready, willing, and able to provide more monetary stimulus through expanding or extending its asset-purchase program. He also … Continue reading
It used to be that investors looked for two things to support a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike: continued improvement in the labor market and for the Fed to be “reasonably confident” that inflation would rise to 2% over the … Continue reading
The private-sector version of the official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) had an initial reading of 47.0 in September. That reading is the lowest level since the financial crisis. It marks seven months in a row of a contracting manufacturing sector. … Continue reading
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its target rate for the federal funds unchanged. In the policy statement, the Fed stated that the economy seems to be advancing at a moderate pace, but global developments may restrain that growth. … Continue reading
As U.S. unemployment figures hover near record lows, commentators could be misreading the meaning behind the data. There’s a more nuanced story to be told from the bundle of labor market reports we see each month. Without insight into those … Continue reading
Shifting expectations of whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will or won’t hike interest rates may not be the only factor causing global volatility—just look at how China’s slow growth is roiling markets—but the rate debate is weighing on investors’ minds. … Continue reading
For anyone who was thinking that it was the Federal Reserve that would trigger a correction, well, say “Hello!” to China! At least, that’s what it looks like triggered Friday’s market sell-off. Slightly worse-than-expected data out of China coupled with … Continue reading
The Chinese government allowed its currency, the yuan, to depreciate nearly 2% against the dollar on Tuesday (as we anticipated it would eventually do). A slightly weaker currency should help—on the margin—export competitiveness and drive up import prices for China. … Continue reading
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has said it is looking for some further improvement in the labor market before it hikes its target for the federal funds rate. Today’s employment situation report showed more than some improvement. Nonfarm payrolls increased by … Continue reading