Category Archives: Economic Analysis

Why U.S. business investment is evolving, not fading

Capex 2016, where are you? Investors wonder what it means when they see headlines declaring that businesses just aren’t spending like they used to. These days, investment spending on capital—capital expenditures, or capex—appears to have taken a backseat to cash … Continue reading

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Majority rules: How stocks perform post-election

Both Republicans and Democrats are gearing up for their party conventions where they officially nominate their candidates for president. The Republican field is thinning as the July 21 convention approaches. The Democratic field has been stable. Meanwhile, rumors have floated … Continue reading

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Is a recession looming? Our data says 12% chance

The dollar is up, term premiums have come down, credit spreads are wide, and the stock market is down. That means there’s a heightened risk of a recession, right? Maybe, but probably not as bad as the market suggests. For … Continue reading

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Japan’s negative rate is a positive growth driver

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced it has set a negative deposit rate, which basically punishes banks for holding reserves instead of lending them out. It’s a potent tool. This is a smart move that should help spark economic growth … Continue reading

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What’s next for the Fed? Hikes, earnings, and more

It’s a new year, which brings a new flock of voters on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The new members were supposed to be slightly more hawkish, but they sound pretty dovish. The FOMC left its policy rate unchanged … Continue reading

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U.S. elections: Important, but not to the markets

We’re approaching an election year. That means lots of arguments and name calling, and that just describes my family gatherings! Which political party is the best for the stock market? It’s a simple question with a not-so-simple answer. Everyone has … Continue reading

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Debt ceiling: What, me worry?

Here we go again. The U.S. is facing another last-minute deal cobbled together between the outgoing House Speaker John Boehner and the White House about the looming debt ceiling. The Treasury secretary has warned Congress that the debt ceiling needs … Continue reading

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Eurozone: Financing its way to growth, finally

The European Central Bank (ECB) kept monetary policy unchanged in the eurozone, though ECB President Mario Draghi did signal the ECB stands ready, willing, and able to provide more monetary stimulus through expanding or extending its asset-purchase program. He also … Continue reading

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New from the Fed: A clearer hurdle for rate hikes

It used to be that investors looked for two things to support a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike: continued improvement in the labor market and for the Fed to be “reasonably confident” that inflation would rise to 2% over the … Continue reading

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China’s manufacturing sector slows as economy adjusts

The private-sector version of the official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) had an initial reading of 47.0 in September. That reading is the lowest level since the financial crisis. It marks seven months in a row of a contracting manufacturing sector. … Continue reading

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