Our Market Optics chartbook contains data-driven insights that power our portfolio management teams’ views, ideas, and decisions. Each week, we’ll take a look a closer look at one of the charts.

This week’s topic: U.S. Economy: Watching the shape of the bounce.

  • Going into the coronavirus crisis, economic growth was slow but stable. It looked to be improving with manufacturing staging a rebound. Then, the shutdowns from the coronavirus hit.
  • Higher-frequency indicators like purchasing managers’ indices, retail sales, and industrial production suggest the second quarter was as bad as it got for the U.S. and the global economy. Peak to trough, the U.S. economy shrank 10.6%.
  • Many economists think we could see a good bounce in activity in the third quarter, but probably not nearly enough to fill the hole left by the coronavirus-induced recession of the first and second quarters. It would take 11.9% growth to get back to the pre-recession levels.
  • We’re over halfway through 2020 and it’s been the year of disruption and recession. 2021 will likely be a year of getting traction and recovery.

Get more charts and insights like this by downloading our Q2 Market Optics chartbook today.



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