“…there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know…it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.” –United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
I find it easy to predict the future. However, it’s a lot harder if you want accuracy and all but impossible if you want consistently accurate market predictions.
It typically is a terrible thing when stocks go down. Whether it is a quick and nasty bull market correction or a protracted and grinding bear market, it has the potential to destroy wealth and damages egos.
“Anyone can get old. All you have to do is live long enough.” Groucho Marx
“The more I see you, the more I want you.” Harry Warren and Mack Gordon
Go, and beat your crazy head against the sky
Try, and see beyond the houses and your eyes
It’s okay to shoot the moon.
–Darling Be Home Soon, The Lovin’ Spoonful
Last week, U.S. stocks rose on reports that the new administration might lower corporate tax rates.
“ Tranquility Base, Houston. All your consumables are solid. You’re looking good in every respect … Everything is copacetic. Over.” Mission Control, Apollo XI
The U.S. stock market has been rising for almost eight years now and, at roughly 16 to 17 times forward consensus-earnings expectations, it seems fairly valued to me.